Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Alimak Group AB (publ) (ALIG.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$530.92 - $1,300.30$1,218.57
Multi-Stage$190.46 - $208.40$199.27
Blended Fair Value$708.92
Current Price$154.80
Upside357.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.25%0.00%2.491.831.661.520.891.401.170.820.820.00
YoY Growth--36.60%10.23%8.91%71.37%-36.58%19.34%43.71%0.05%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.88%2.24%1.93%0.85%2.14%1.15%0.86%0.82%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)695.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)317.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)378.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.0086.8852.13
Cash Retained (M)378.00378.00378.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.00-86.88-52.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)239.00291.13325.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.30106.30106.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.252.743.07
LTM Dividend per Share2.982.982.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.252.743.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.235.726.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$530.92$1,218.57$1,300.30
Upside / Downside242.97%687.19%739.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)695.00740.18788.29839.52894.09952.21980.78
Payout Ratio45.61%54.49%63.37%72.24%81.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)317.00403.32499.51606.51725.31856.99907.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)375.01378.56382.11
Year 2 PV (M)431.85440.07448.38
Year 3 PV (M)487.55501.54515.80
Year 4 PV (M)542.12562.97584.41
Year 5 PV (M)595.58624.34654.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,813.4318,673.8319,567.15
Equity Value (M)20,245.5321,181.3222,152.07
Shares Outstanding (M)106.30106.30106.30
Fair Value$190.46$199.27$208.40
Upside / Downside23.04%28.72%34.62%

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