Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kadokawa Corporation (9468.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,413.22 - $5,489.00$2,394.41
Multi-Stage$922.69 - $1,006.67$963.92
Blended Fair Value$1,679.17
Current Price$4,003.00
Upside-58.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS25.67%17.42%28.7530.0829.9823.2613.359.179.539.849.755.00
YoY Growth---4.42%0.33%28.88%74.21%45.57%-3.78%-3.09%0.94%94.91%-13.36%
Dividend Yield--0.72%1.12%0.87%0.80%0.59%0.83%1.29%1.61%1.34%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,796.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,368.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,359.20849.50509.70
Cash Retained (M)2,368.002,368.002,368.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,359.20-849.50-509.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,008.801,518.501,858.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.38141.38141.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.1410.7413.14
LTM Dividend per Share31.3231.3231.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.1410.7413.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.4642.0644.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,413.22$2,394.41$5,489.00
Upside / Downside-64.70%-40.18%37.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,796.007,237.747,708.198,209.238,742.839,311.119,590.44
Payout Ratio65.16%70.12%75.09%80.06%85.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,428.005,075.455,788.366,572.507,434.138,380.008,871.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,639.434,683.414,727.38
Year 2 PV (M)4,836.564,928.685,021.67
Year 3 PV (M)5,019.985,164.095,310.92
Year 4 PV (M)5,190.295,389.905,595.20
Year 5 PV (M)5,348.065,606.375,874.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,412.30110,503.75115,790.07
Equity Value (M)130,446.62136,276.20142,319.82
Shares Outstanding (M)141.38141.38141.38
Fair Value$922.69$963.92$1,006.67
Upside / Downside-76.95%-75.92%-74.85%

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