Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ocean One Holding Ltd. (8476.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.06 - $3.69$2.75
Multi-Stage$2.54 - $2.79$2.66
Blended Fair Value$2.71
Current Price$2.81
Upside-3.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.18%0.00%0.040.040.030.030.020.030.020.000.040.05
YoY Growth--0.00%21.21%32.00%13.64%-18.52%22.73%0.00%-100.00%-20.63%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.92%4.40%3.25%2.68%3.65%2.93%0.00%2.90%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.325.203.12
Cash Retained (M)30.4230.4230.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.32-5.20-3.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0925.2127.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)280.00280.00280.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Fair Value$2.06$2.75$3.69
Upside / Downside-26.51%-2.20%31.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.6242.9144.2445.6247.0448.5049.96
Payout Ratio26.91%39.53%52.15%64.77%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.2016.9623.0729.5536.4043.6546.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Year 1 PV (M)15.5615.7115.86
Year 2 PV (M)19.4019.7820.17
Year 3 PV (M)22.7923.4624.15
Year 4 PV (M)25.7426.7727.82
Year 5 PV (M)28.3129.7231.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)600.74630.74661.92
Equity Value (M)712.54746.18781.12
Shares Outstanding (M)280.00280.00280.00
Fair Value$2.54$2.66$2.79
Upside / Downside-9.44%-5.16%-0.72%

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