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Definitive Analysis

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FP Corporation (7947.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,006.80 - $10,968.08$6,186.26
Multi-Stage$4,679.04 - $5,133.33$4,901.90
Blended Fair Value$5,544.08
Current Price$2,654.00
Upside108.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.58%7.01%56.9547.5647.5546.0441.9241.4241.4440.8238.3630.22
YoY Growth--19.73%0.03%3.28%9.82%1.22%-0.06%1.51%6.42%26.92%4.49%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.97%1.62%1.62%1.02%0.96%1.24%1.33%1.26%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,838.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,970.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,868.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,767.601,729.751,037.85
Cash Retained (M)8,868.008,868.008,868.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,767.60-1,729.75-1,037.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,100.407,138.257,830.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.8680.8680.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share75.4488.2796.83
LTM Dividend per Share61.4661.4661.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share75.4488.2796.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend136.90149.74158.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Fair Value$4,006.80$6,186.26$10,968.08
Upside / Downside50.97%133.09%313.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,838.0014,364.4714,910.9715,478.2516,067.1316,678.4017,178.75
Payout Ratio35.92%46.73%57.55%68.37%79.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,970.006,712.878,581.1610,581.9012,722.4515,010.5615,890.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)6,253.196,314.016,374.84
Year 2 PV (M)7,446.167,591.727,738.70
Year 3 PV (M)8,553.488,805.529,062.46
Year 4 PV (M)9,579.509,957.7010,346.99
Year 5 PV (M)10,528.3911,050.5111,593.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)336,004.61352,667.56369,985.12
Equity Value (M)378,365.31396,387.01415,101.24
Shares Outstanding (M)80.8680.8680.86
Fair Value$4,679.04$4,901.90$5,133.33
Upside / Downside76.30%84.70%93.42%

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