Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Family International Gourmet Co. Ltd. (7708.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.48 - $78.76$64.23
Multi-Stage$110.67 - $121.80$116.12
Blended Fair Value$90.18
Current Price$97.00
Upside-7.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.310.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.6117.8810.73
Cash Retained (M)85.5785.5785.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.61-17.88-10.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.9667.6974.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.9324.9324.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.723.00
LTM Dividend per Share2.312.312.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.723.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.595.025.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$51.48$64.23$78.76
Upside / Downside-46.93%-33.79%-18.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.07141.64140.22138.82137.43136.06140.14
Payout Ratio40.19%50.15%60.11%70.08%80.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.5071.0384.2997.28110.00122.45129.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)65.8866.5567.22
Year 2 PV (M)72.5073.9875.49
Year 3 PV (M)77.5979.9982.44
Year 4 PV (M)81.3684.7488.21
Year 5 PV (M)84.0088.3792.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,377.562,501.362,630.27
Equity Value (M)2,758.892,895.003,036.56
Shares Outstanding (M)24.9324.9324.93
Fair Value$110.67$116.12$121.80
Upside / Downside14.09%19.72%25.57%

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