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Definitive Analysis

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Yachiyo Industry Co., Ltd. (7298.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,786.35 - $4,955.12$3,701.35
Multi-Stage$4,667.47 - $5,132.74$4,895.62
Blended Fair Value$4,298.48
Current Price$1,382.00
Upside211.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-0.68%3.79%29.0614.0316.0324.0524.0530.0652.6022.0421.0421.04
YoY Growth--107.14%-12.50%-33.33%0.00%-20.00%-42.86%138.64%4.76%0.00%5.00%
Dividend Yield--2.49%2.21%2.62%4.82%3.67%2.51%4.71%2.63%1.95%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,923.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)816.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,107.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)984.60615.38369.23
Cash Retained (M)4,107.004,107.004,107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-984.60-615.38-369.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,122.403,491.633,737.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.9523.9523.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share130.36145.77156.05
LTM Dividend per Share34.0734.0734.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share130.36145.77156.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend164.43179.84190.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$2,786.35$3,701.35$4,955.12
Upside / Downside101.62%167.83%258.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,923.005,001.825,081.905,163.265,245.925,329.915,489.81
Payout Ratio16.58%31.26%45.95%60.63%75.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)816.001,563.582,334.893,130.493,950.974,796.925,078.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)1,453.191,467.631,482.08
Year 2 PV (M)2,016.832,057.122,097.81
Year 3 PV (M)2,513.142,588.832,666.03
Year 4 PV (M)2,947.883,066.853,189.38
Year 5 PV (M)3,326.363,495.003,670.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,539.64104,586.22109,835.45
Equity Value (M)111,797.03117,261.66122,941.17
Shares Outstanding (M)23.9523.9523.95
Fair Value$4,667.47$4,895.62$5,132.74
Upside / Downside237.73%254.24%271.40%

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