Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,082.60 - $8,788.24$4,817.01
Multi-Stage$3,216.36 - $3,524.74$3,367.67
Blended Fair Value$4,092.34
Current Price$2,815.50
Upside45.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.13%12.33%54.7950.9549.6341.4136.2432.3231.0627.5425.1822.84
YoY Growth--7.54%2.65%19.85%14.29%12.10%4.08%12.77%9.36%10.27%33.33%
Dividend Yield--2.54%1.56%1.81%1.68%1.28%1.54%1.83%1.33%1.33%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235,877.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106,443.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)129,434.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,175.4029,484.6317,690.78
Cash Retained (M)129,434.00129,434.00129,434.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,175.40-29,484.63-17,690.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)82,258.6099,949.38111,743.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,854.001,854.001,854.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.3753.9160.27
LTM Dividend per Share57.4157.4157.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.3753.9160.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.32117.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$3,082.60$4,817.01$8,788.24
Upside / Downside9.49%71.09%212.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235,877.00245,939.17256,430.57267,369.52278,775.11290,667.25299,387.27
Payout Ratio45.13%54.10%63.08%72.05%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106,443.00133,056.01161,745.87192,641.33225,878.36261,600.53276,933.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)123,533.44124,729.71125,925.97
Year 2 PV (M)139,422.63142,135.97144,875.46
Year 3 PV (M)154,169.89158,692.23163,302.15
Year 4 PV (M)167,832.00174,428.01181,216.56
Year 5 PV (M)180,463.26189,371.93198,629.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,197,701.355,454,288.945,720,911.22
Equity Value (M)5,963,122.576,243,646.796,534,860.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,854.001,854.001,854.00
Fair Value$3,216.36$3,367.67$3,524.74
Upside / Downside14.24%19.61%25.19%

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