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Hunan Warrant Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (688799.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$185.47 - $452.17$423.75
Multi-Stage$67.28 - $73.57$70.37
Blended Fair Value$247.06
Current Price$57.18
Upside332.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS19.68%42.65%0.920.900.700.000.380.380.010.020.020.03
YoY Growth--2.26%28.61%0.00%-100.00%-0.04%4,771.22%-65.36%42.45%-43.19%4.06%
Dividend Yield--3.25%2.46%2.66%0.00%0.97%0.97%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.6126.6315.98
Cash Retained (M)70.0170.0170.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.61-26.63-15.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4043.3854.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.7093.7093.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.460.58
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.460.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.821.992.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$185.47$423.75$452.17
Upside / Downside224.36%641.09%690.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.03226.88241.63257.33274.06291.87300.63
Payout Ratio67.14%71.71%76.28%80.86%85.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143.03162.70184.32208.07234.12262.68278.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)151.28152.72154.15
Year 2 PV (M)159.37162.40165.47
Year 3 PV (M)167.28172.08176.97
Year 4 PV (M)175.02181.75188.67
Year 5 PV (M)182.60191.42200.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,468.725,732.866,007.11
Equity Value (M)6,304.266,593.226,892.94
Shares Outstanding (M)93.7093.7093.70
Fair Value$67.28$70.37$73.57
Upside / Downside17.67%23.06%28.66%

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