Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuhai CosMX Battery Co., Ltd. (688772.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.23 - $96.04$90.00
Multi-Stage$13.87 - $15.16$14.50
Blended Fair Value$52.25
Current Price$23.79
Upside119.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS80.39%0.00%0.390.200.260.050.210.020.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--91.65%-22.41%393.57%-75.29%953.37%163.43%108.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.46%1.39%0.17%0.64%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)549.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)407.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.8568.6641.19
Cash Retained (M)141.70141.70141.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.85-68.66-41.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.8573.04100.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,137.371,137.371,137.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.23$90.00$96.04
Upside / Downside48.08%278.32%303.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)549.25584.95622.97663.46706.59752.52775.09
Payout Ratio74.20%77.36%80.52%83.68%86.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)407.55452.52501.62555.19613.60677.26716.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)420.30424.28428.26
Year 2 PV (M)432.72440.96449.28
Year 3 PV (M)444.82457.59470.60
Year 4 PV (M)456.61474.17492.23
Year 5 PV (M)468.09490.70514.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,550.1814,204.6614,884.19
Equity Value (M)15,772.7116,492.3517,238.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,137.371,137.371,137.37
Fair Value$13.87$14.50$15.16
Upside / Downside-41.71%-39.05%-36.29%

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