Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (688319.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.21 - $13.46$6.80
Multi-Stage$2.73 - $2.98$2.85
Blended Fair Value$4.83
Current Price$27.20
Upside-82.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS126.85%23.19%0.070.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--395.62%40.81%313.18%36.38%52.76%23.43%312.52%0.00%-100.00%-26.12%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.16%0.05%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.848.034.82
Cash Retained (M)53.0153.0153.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.84-8.03-4.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1744.9948.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.92405.92405.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.21$6.80$13.46
Upside / Downside-84.51%-75.01%-50.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.2168.3972.8377.5682.6187.9890.61
Payout Ratio17.44%31.95%46.46%60.98%75.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.2021.8533.8447.3062.3679.1883.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.9220.1120.30
Year 2 PV (M)28.1228.6629.20
Year 3 PV (M)35.8336.8637.90
Year 4 PV (M)43.0644.7246.42
Year 5 PV (M)49.8452.2554.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)930.80975.761,022.43
Equity Value (M)1,107.571,158.341,211.00
Shares Outstanding (M)405.92405.92405.92
Fair Value$2.73$2.85$2.98
Upside / Downside-89.97%-89.51%-89.03%

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