Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sansure Biotech Inc. (688289.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.24 - $4.69$3.94
Multi-Stage$5.66 - $6.20$5.93
Blended Fair Value$4.94
Current Price$21.17
Upside-76.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.440.661.080.720.490.000.000.010.000.00
YoY Growth---32.98%-39.04%49.34%46.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%3.40%4.55%2.39%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)179.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3033.9420.36
Cash Retained (M)91.9891.9891.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.30-33.94-20.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.6858.0471.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)609.07609.07609.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.24$3.94$4.69
Upside / Downside-84.70%-81.37%-77.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.49268.78266.09263.43260.79258.18265.93
Payout Ratio66.12%70.90%75.67%80.45%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)179.51190.55201.35211.92222.26232.37245.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.79%8.79%8.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)173.39175.16176.93
Year 2 PV (M)166.72170.14173.59
Year 3 PV (M)159.66164.60169.64
Year 4 PV (M)152.37158.68165.19
Year 5 PV (M)144.95152.50160.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,650.922,788.962,932.70
Equity Value (M)3,448.013,610.043,778.40
Shares Outstanding (M)609.07609.07609.07
Fair Value$5.66$5.93$6.20
Upside / Downside-73.26%-72.00%-70.70%

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