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Definitive Analysis

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Study King Co., Ltd. (6780.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.40 - $11.09$9.15
Multi-Stage$15.17 - $16.64$15.89
Blended Fair Value$12.52
Current Price$20.30
Upside-38.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.212.020.670.220.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-40.00%200.88%206.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.66%7.24%1.75%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.901.811.09
Cash Retained (M)1.511.511.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.90-1.81-1.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.39-0.310.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.3116.3116.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.40$9.15$11.09
Upside / Downside-63.53%-54.93%-45.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.5114.3714.2214.0813.9413.8014.22
Payout Ratio89.60%89.68%89.76%89.84%89.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.0012.8912.7712.6512.5412.4213.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.8712.0012.12
Year 2 PV (M)10.8411.0611.29
Year 3 PV (M)9.9010.2110.52
Year 4 PV (M)9.049.419.80
Year 5 PV (M)8.258.689.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)197.59207.88218.59
Equity Value (M)247.50259.24271.45
Shares Outstanding (M)16.3116.3116.31
Fair Value$15.17$15.89$16.64
Upside / Downside-25.26%-21.72%-18.03%

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