Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ever Supreme Bio Technology Co., Ltd (6712.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.26 - $71.14$59.24
Multi-Stage$91.65 - $100.47$95.98
Blended Fair Value$77.61
Current Price$185.50
Upside-58.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%5.211.613.670.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--222.87%-55.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.39%0.89%2.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)520.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)407.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.1865.1139.07
Cash Retained (M)113.09113.09113.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.18-65.11-39.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.9147.9874.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.4184.4184.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.570.88
LTM Dividend per Share4.834.834.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.570.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.945.405.71
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$48.26$59.24$71.14
Upside / Downside-73.98%-68.07%-61.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)520.90515.69510.53505.42500.37495.37510.23
Payout Ratio78.29%80.63%82.97%85.32%87.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)407.80415.80423.60431.21438.61445.83471.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)381.03384.92388.81
Year 2 PV (M)355.71363.01370.38
Year 3 PV (M)331.81342.07352.55
Year 4 PV (M)309.29322.11335.32
Year 5 PV (M)288.08303.08318.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,070.026,386.106,715.22
Equity Value (M)7,735.958,101.298,480.97
Shares Outstanding (M)84.4184.4184.41
Fair Value$91.65$95.98$100.47
Upside / Downside-50.59%-48.26%-45.84%

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