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Definitive Analysis

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Meidensha Corporation (6508.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32,969.75 - $80,746.27$75,671.08
Multi-Stage$11,704.98 - $12,814.10$12,249.34
Blended Fair Value$43,960.21
Current Price$5,890.00
Upside646.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.18%10.96%84.8946.9753.0153.0144.9949.9745.0139.9939.9954.91
YoY Growth--80.71%-11.39%0.00%17.83%-9.97%11.02%12.57%0.00%-27.18%83.03%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.28%2.65%2.66%2.04%2.86%2.54%2.00%2.08%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,419.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,570.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,849.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,683.802,302.381,381.43
Cash Retained (M)12,849.0012,849.0012,849.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,683.80-2,302.38-1,381.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,165.2010,546.6311,467.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.3745.3745.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share202.03232.48252.78
LTM Dividend per Share122.78122.78122.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share202.03232.48252.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend324.81355.26375.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32,969.75$75,671.08$80,746.27
Upside / Downside459.76%1,184.74%1,270.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,419.0019,616.2420,891.2922,249.2223,695.4225,235.6325,992.70
Payout Ratio30.24%42.19%54.14%66.10%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,570.008,276.5611,311.4414,705.8918,493.8322,712.0624,043.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,695.607,768.557,841.49
Year 2 PV (M)9,779.209,965.4710,153.49
Year 3 PV (M)11,821.4212,160.7712,506.55
Year 4 PV (M)13,822.8614,354.4414,901.22
Year 5 PV (M)15,784.1216,546.5017,338.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)472,096.84494,899.29518,574.45
Equity Value (M)531,000.04555,695.02581,315.26
Shares Outstanding (M)45.3745.3745.37
Fair Value$11,704.98$12,249.34$12,814.10
Upside / Downside98.73%107.97%117.56%

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