DDM Analysis: 605598.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.80 - $2.56	$2.17
Multi-Stage	$2.55 - $2.80	$2.67
Blended Fair Value	$2.42
Current Price	$25.10
Upside	-90.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	40.65%	0.00%	0.22	0.07	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	217.44%	116.66%	76.48%	0.00%	-100.00%	1.99%	323.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.09%	0.36%	0.16%	0.17%	0.00%	0.28%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	62.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)	62.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.57	7.86	4.71
Cash Retained (M)	62.49	62.49	62.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.57	-7.86	-4.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	49.92	54.63	57.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	239.44	239.44	239.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.23	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.23	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-1.55%	-0.55%	0.45%
Fair Value	$1.80	$2.17	$2.56
Upside / Downside	-92.84%	-91.34%	-89.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	62.85	62.50	62.16	61.82	61.49	61.15	62.98
Payout Ratio	0.58%	18.46%	36.35%	54.23%	72.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.36	11.54	22.59	33.53	44.34	55.03	58.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-1.55%	-0.55%	0.45%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.39	10.49	10.60
Year 2 PV (M)	18.31	18.69	19.06
Year 3 PV (M)	24.46	25.21	25.98
Year 4 PV (M)	29.12	30.33	31.56
Year 5 PV (M)	32.54	34.23	35.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	494.78	520.42	547.12
Equity Value (M)	609.61	639.37	670.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	239.44	239.44	239.44
Fair Value	$2.55	$2.67	$2.80
Upside / Downside	-89.86%	-89.36%	-88.85%

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Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co., Ltd. (605598.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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