Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Longyan Kaolin Clay Co., Ltd. (605086.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.80 - $15.67$11.69
Multi-Stage$8.05 - $8.79$8.42
Blended Fair Value$10.06
Current Price$25.40
Upside-60.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS74.77%0.00%0.450.240.240.000.000.030.040.350.020.00
YoY Growth--90.73%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-92.43%-31.17%-88.58%1,577.21%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.37%1.51%0.00%0.02%0.21%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.3313.968.37
Cash Retained (M)74.2074.2074.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.33-13.96-8.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.8760.2465.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)179.20179.20179.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate10.15%10.15%10.15%
Growth Rate4.24%5.24%6.24%
Fair Value$8.80$11.69$15.67
Upside / Downside-65.37%-53.96%-38.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.65117.51123.67130.16136.98144.17148.49
Payout Ratio33.54%44.84%56.13%67.42%78.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.4552.6869.4187.75107.82129.75137.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.15%10.15%10.15%
Growth Rate4.24%5.24%6.24%
Year 1 PV (M)47.3747.8348.28
Year 2 PV (M)56.1357.2158.30
Year 3 PV (M)63.8065.6567.54
Year 4 PV (M)70.4973.2476.06
Year 5 PV (M)76.2880.0183.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,129.211,184.421,241.77
Equity Value (M)1,443.291,508.361,575.84
Shares Outstanding (M)179.20179.20179.20
Fair Value$8.05$8.42$8.79
Upside / Downside-68.29%-66.86%-65.38%

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