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Definitive Analysis

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Xianheng International Science&Technology Co., Ltd. (605056.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.71 - $8.86$7.17
Multi-Stage$13.30 - $14.63$13.95
Blended Fair Value$10.56
Current Price$16.22
Upside-34.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-13.33%0.00%0.150.350.340.390.300.300.280.140.000.00
YoY Growth---57.34%3.31%-14.62%30.03%-0.05%6.21%107.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%2.46%2.68%2.73%1.54%1.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.8731.7919.08
Cash Retained (M)108.23108.23108.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.87-31.79-19.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.3676.4389.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.83417.83417.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.71$7.17$8.86
Upside / Downside-64.79%-55.80%-45.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.34251.80249.28246.79244.32241.87249.13
Payout Ratio57.45%63.96%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.11161.05175.66189.97203.98217.69230.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)149.89151.42152.95
Year 2 PV (M)152.18155.30158.45
Year 3 PV (M)153.17157.91162.74
Year 4 PV (M)153.08159.42165.96
Year 5 PV (M)152.05159.97168.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,796.725,046.505,306.57
Equity Value (M)5,557.095,830.516,114.89
Shares Outstanding (M)417.83417.83417.83
Fair Value$13.30$13.95$14.63
Upside / Downside-18.00%-13.97%-9.77%

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