Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co., Ltd. (605016.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.37 - $10.87$9.04
Multi-Stage$13.09 - $14.40$13.73
Blended Fair Value$11.39
Current Price$20.07
Upside-43.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.220.090.030.000.010.000.000.020.050.00
YoY Growth--141.14%200.07%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-53.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.62%0.25%0.00%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)327.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.5340.9524.57
Cash Retained (M)270.23270.23270.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.53-40.95-24.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.71229.28245.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348.95348.95348.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.37$9.04$10.87
Upside / Downside-63.30%-54.94%-45.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)327.63324.36321.11317.90314.72311.58320.92
Payout Ratio17.52%32.02%46.51%61.01%75.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.40103.85149.36193.95237.63280.42296.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)95.1996.1697.13
Year 2 PV (M)125.49128.07130.67
Year 3 PV (M)149.37153.99158.70
Year 4 PV (M)167.76174.71181.88
Year 5 PV (M)181.46190.91200.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,847.474,047.824,256.42
Equity Value (M)4,566.744,791.655,025.55
Shares Outstanding (M)348.95348.95348.95
Fair Value$13.09$13.73$14.40
Upside / Downside-34.79%-31.58%-28.24%

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