Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JINHUI LIQUOR Co.,Ltd. (603919.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.54 - $151.11$141.61
Multi-Stage$24.41 - $26.71$25.54
Blended Fair Value$83.58
Current Price$20.19
Upside313.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.74%12.09%0.400.310.220.250.200.200.190.130.150.17
YoY Growth--29.41%36.29%-9.04%25.76%-1.44%3.91%41.99%-10.85%-11.44%35.12%
Dividend Yield--2.09%1.47%0.82%0.89%0.57%1.92%1.50%1.08%0.93%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)378.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.7847.3628.42
Cash Retained (M)130.39130.39130.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.78-47.36-28.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.6183.03101.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)498.65498.65498.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.54$141.61$151.11
Upside / Downside318.72%601.39%648.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)378.88403.51429.74457.67487.42519.10534.67
Payout Ratio65.59%70.47%75.35%80.23%85.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.49284.35323.81367.21414.88467.19494.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)265.09267.60270.11
Year 2 PV (M)281.43286.79292.20
Year 3 PV (M)297.53306.07314.77
Year 4 PV (M)313.38325.43337.83
Year 5 PV (M)328.99344.88361.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,688.0011,204.2311,740.23
Equity Value (M)12,174.4212,735.0113,316.52
Shares Outstanding (M)498.65498.65498.65
Fair Value$24.41$25.54$26.71
Upside / Downside20.93%26.49%32.27%

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