Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Langbo Sealing Technologies Co.,Ltd. (603655.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.11 - $8.80$6.70
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.55$5.31
Blended Fair Value$6.01
Current Price$36.50
Upside-83.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.53%27.21%0.120.050.100.100.070.100.100.030.040.54
YoY Growth--137.85%-50.00%0.00%42.86%-30.00%0.00%278.57%-38.47%-91.94%4,867.99%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.30%0.32%0.56%0.32%0.41%0.57%0.11%0.46%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.245.153.09
Cash Retained (M)25.4625.4625.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.24-5.15-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.2220.3122.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.35105.35105.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$5.11$6.70$8.80
Upside / Downside-86.00%-81.64%-75.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2243.1345.1347.2249.4151.7053.25
Payout Ratio38.23%48.58%58.94%69.29%79.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.7620.9526.6032.7239.3546.5349.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)18.8719.0519.23
Year 2 PV (M)21.5721.9922.41
Year 3 PV (M)23.9024.5925.31
Year 4 PV (M)25.8826.9027.94
Year 5 PV (M)27.5628.9130.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)417.76438.31459.65
Equity Value (M)535.54559.75584.87
Shares Outstanding (M)105.35105.35105.35
Fair Value$5.08$5.31$5.55
Upside / Downside-86.07%-85.44%-84.79%

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