Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Liaoning Fu-An Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (603315.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.36 - $29.92$28.04
Multi-Stage$4.00 - $4.38$4.19
Blended Fair Value$16.11
Current Price$13.34
Upside20.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.60%-2.56%0.150.080.070.150.160.010.010.040.060.08
YoY Growth--77.01%26.72%-55.19%-9.09%1,435.47%0.00%-72.51%-40.00%-22.35%-57.07%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.63%0.45%0.61%1.25%0.10%0.07%0.31%0.27%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.475.923.55
Cash Retained (M)26.6526.6526.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.47-5.92-3.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1820.7323.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)314.75314.75314.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.36$28.04$29.92
Upside / Downside-29.81%110.21%124.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.3650.4353.7157.2060.9264.8866.83
Payout Ratio43.72%52.98%62.23%71.49%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.7126.7233.4340.8949.1958.3961.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.7725.0025.24
Year 2 PV (M)28.7329.2829.83
Year 3 PV (M)32.5833.5234.47
Year 4 PV (M)36.3337.7339.17
Year 5 PV (M)39.9841.9243.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,097.641,150.651,205.70
Equity Value (M)1,260.031,318.091,378.32
Shares Outstanding (M)314.75314.75314.75
Fair Value$4.00$4.19$4.38
Upside / Downside-69.99%-68.61%-67.17%

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