Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Goneo Group Co., Ltd. (603195.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.27 - $35.70$29.07
Multi-Stage$52.34 - $57.52$54.88
Blended Fair Value$41.97
Current Price$44.66
Upside-6.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.791.300.950.801.470.000.121.340.410.30
YoY Growth--38.12%36.08%19.66%-45.81%0.00%-100.00%-91.18%225.59%36.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.48%2.55%1.81%1.86%2.47%0.00%0.42%4.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,987.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,104.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)883.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)797.53498.45299.07
Cash Retained (M)883.52883.52883.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-797.53-498.45-299.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.00385.07584.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.27$29.07$35.70
Upside / Downside-47.90%-34.91%-20.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,987.633,947.753,908.273,869.193,830.503,792.193,905.96
Payout Ratio77.84%80.27%82.71%85.14%87.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,104.103,169.043,232.373,294.123,354.313,412.973,613.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,941.222,971.243,001.25
Year 2 PV (M)2,784.342,841.452,899.15
Year 3 PV (M)2,633.542,714.992,798.09
Year 4 PV (M)2,488.882,592.042,698.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,350.362,472.742,600.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,030.9271,573.4475,262.03
Equity Value (M)81,229.2685,165.9089,259.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
Fair Value$52.34$54.88$57.52
Upside / Downside17.20%22.88%28.79%

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