Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huangma Technology Co.,Ltd (603181.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.37 - $156.53$146.70
Multi-Stage$23.04 - $25.23$24.12
Blended Fair Value$85.41
Current Price$18.87
Upside352.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.70%11.41%0.170.030.140.020.150.110.090.030.050.06
YoY Growth--501.05%-78.58%502.52%-85.20%44.75%22.14%169.02%-32.91%-20.84%1.56%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.29%1.05%0.16%1.21%1.57%1.05%0.43%0.94%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)449.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.9256.2033.72
Cash Retained (M)316.86316.86316.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.92-56.20-33.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.94260.66283.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)571.21571.21571.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.37$146.70$156.53
Upside / Downside257.01%677.40%729.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)449.60478.83509.95543.10578.40616.00634.48
Payout Ratio29.53%41.62%53.72%65.81%77.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.75199.29273.92357.41450.60554.40586.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)185.39187.15188.91
Year 2 PV (M)237.05241.57246.13
Year 3 PV (M)287.74296.00304.42
Year 4 PV (M)337.47350.45363.80
Year 5 PV (M)386.25404.91424.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,729.1412,295.6712,883.87
Equity Value (M)13,163.0513,775.7414,411.39
Shares Outstanding (M)571.21571.21571.21
Fair Value$23.04$24.12$25.23
Upside / Downside22.12%27.80%33.70%

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