Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chengdu Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (603053.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.55 - $5.02$4.28
Multi-Stage$5.18 - $5.70$5.44
Blended Fair Value$4.86
Current Price$10.40
Upside-53.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.95%0.00%0.340.330.330.270.260.120.290.670.420.45
YoY Growth--1.40%1.33%21.39%3.76%117.09%-59.07%-56.17%58.11%-5.27%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.60%3.43%3.43%2.88%2.29%0.81%1.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)485.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)448.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.0460.6536.39
Cash Retained (M)448.02448.02448.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.04-60.65-36.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)350.98387.37411.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)893.72893.72893.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.55$4.28$5.02
Upside / Downside-65.89%-58.89%-51.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)485.22480.36475.56470.80466.10461.44475.28
Payout Ratio7.67%24.13%40.60%57.07%73.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.20115.92193.07268.67342.74415.29439.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)104.32105.39106.45
Year 2 PV (M)156.36159.57162.81
Year 3 PV (M)195.80201.86208.04
Year 4 PV (M)224.78234.10243.70
Year 5 PV (M)245.11257.87271.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,707.073,900.114,101.10
Equity Value (M)4,633.454,858.895,093.26
Shares Outstanding (M)893.72893.72893.72
Fair Value$5.18$5.44$5.70
Upside / Downside-50.15%-47.72%-45.20%

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