Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. (603029.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.29 - $132.30$123.98
Multi-Stage$78.06 - $85.66$81.79
Blended Fair Value$102.88
Current Price$17.91
Upside474.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.06%13.08%0.180.180.080.070.080.080.050.070.000.00
YoY Growth---0.19%108.88%26.84%-12.40%-1.00%41.19%-22.17%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.98%0.38%0.47%0.78%0.69%0.42%0.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2410.156.09
Cash Retained (M)58.4458.4458.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.24-10.15-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.2048.2952.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.06122.06122.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate1.84%1.84%1.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.29$123.98$132.30
Upside / Downside526.97%592.25%638.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.2086.4892.1098.09104.46111.25114.59
Payout Ratio28.04%40.43%52.82%65.21%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7634.9648.6563.9781.07100.13106.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.84%1.84%1.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.0134.3334.65
Year 2 PV (M)46.0346.9047.79
Year 3 PV (M)58.8760.5662.28
Year 4 PV (M)72.5775.3678.23
Year 5 PV (M)87.1891.3995.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,229.129,674.8910,137.72
Equity Value (M)9,527.779,983.4310,456.44
Shares Outstanding (M)122.06122.06122.06
Fair Value$78.06$81.79$85.66
Upside / Downside335.82%356.66%378.30%

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