Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Dahao Technology Corp.,Ltd (603025.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.50 - $123.69$115.92
Multi-Stage$18.26 - $19.97$19.10
Blended Fair Value$67.51
Current Price$16.93
Upside298.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.42%9.08%0.310.170.330.180.180.250.410.180.160.14
YoY Growth--85.76%-50.00%81.47%-0.01%-26.33%-39.10%125.77%12.50%17.65%5.54%
Dividend Yield--2.21%1.53%2.45%1.11%1.05%3.86%4.07%1.40%1.18%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)692.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)395.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.5886.6151.97
Cash Retained (M)297.05297.05297.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.58-86.61-51.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.47210.44245.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.031,114.031,114.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.50$115.92$123.69
Upside / Downside198.31%584.69%630.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)692.88737.92785.88836.96891.37949.30977.78
Payout Ratio57.13%63.70%70.28%76.85%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)395.83470.07552.29643.22743.63854.37904.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)437.08441.22445.36
Year 2 PV (M)477.48486.58495.76
Year 3 PV (M)517.05531.90547.02
Year 4 PV (M)555.81577.19599.17
Year 5 PV (M)593.76622.44652.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,759.0618,616.8319,507.43
Equity Value (M)20,340.2521,276.1522,246.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.031,114.031,114.03
Fair Value$18.26$19.10$19.97
Upside / Downside7.85%12.81%17.96%

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