DDM Analysis: 601888.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$34.12 - $79.13	$49.96
Multi-Stage	$25.50 - $27.78	$26.62
Blended Fair Value	$38.29
Current Price	$71.57
Upside	-46.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	26.64%	24.51%	1.69	0.80	1.42	0.94	0.68	0.52	0.49	0.47	0.24	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	111.32%	-43.49%	50.00%	38.89%	30.91%	5.77%	4.00%	100.00%	8.69%	15.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.81%	0.91%	0.77%	0.57%	0.22%	0.77%	0.70%	0.89%	0.83%	0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,399.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,107.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,292.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	679.96	424.97	254.98
Cash Retained (M)	1,292.38	1,292.38	1,292.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-679.96	-424.97	-254.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	612.42	867.40	1,037.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,068.86	2,068.86	2,068.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.42	0.50
LTM Dividend per Share	1.02	1.02	1.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.42	0.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.31	1.44	1.52
WACC / Discount Rate	9.57%	9.57%	9.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$34.12	$49.96	$79.13
Upside / Downside	-52.33%	-30.19%	10.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,399.78	3,620.76	3,856.11	4,106.76	4,373.70	4,657.99	4,797.73
Payout Ratio	61.99%	67.59%	73.19%	78.79%	84.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,107.40	2,447.24	2,822.36	3,235.90	3,691.28	4,192.19	4,437.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.57%	9.57%	9.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,212.62	2,233.59	2,254.57
Year 2 PV (M)	2,307.14	2,351.08	2,395.44
Year 3 PV (M)	2,391.59	2,460.25	2,530.20
Year 4 PV (M)	2,466.60	2,561.46	2,659.03
Year 5 PV (M)	2,532.76	2,655.09	2,782.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	40,840.19	42,812.78	44,860.87
Equity Value (M)	52,750.90	55,074.25	57,482.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,068.86	2,068.86	2,068.86
Fair Value	$25.50	$26.62	$27.78
Upside / Downside	-64.37%	-62.80%	-61.18%

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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