Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Sinomach Heavy Equipment Group Co., Ltd. (601399.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.36 - $0.49$0.43
Multi-Stage$0.55 - $0.61$0.58
Blended Fair Value$0.50
Current Price$3.28
Upside-84.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-34.27%-31.11%0.000.000.000.000.010.010.060.010.000.00
YoY Growth---49.07%17.54%-1.04%-51.64%-57.16%-77.18%336.84%1,231.10%-78.73%-93.05%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.12%0.09%0.08%0.15%0.23%0.99%0.23%0.02%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)453.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)447.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.7656.7334.04
Cash Retained (M)447.89447.89447.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.76-56.73-34.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)357.13391.17413.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,210.287,210.287,210.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.58%-2.58%-1.58%
Fair Value$0.36$0.43$0.49
Upside / Downside-89.10%-87.00%-84.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)453.82442.11430.70419.59408.76398.22410.16
Payout Ratio1.31%19.04%36.78%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.9384.20158.43228.77295.38358.40379.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.58%-2.58%-1.58%
Year 1 PV (M)75.7676.5577.33
Year 2 PV (M)128.26130.93133.64
Year 3 PV (M)166.64171.88177.23
Year 4 PV (M)193.59201.75210.16
Year 5 PV (M)211.35222.54234.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,196.303,365.523,541.84
Equity Value (M)3,971.904,169.164,374.39
Shares Outstanding (M)7,210.287,210.287,210.28
Fair Value$0.55$0.58$0.61
Upside / Downside-83.21%-82.37%-81.50%

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