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Definitive Analysis

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Gem-Year Industrial Co.,Ltd. (601002.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.72 - $2.54$2.11
Multi-Stage$4.49 - $4.95$4.72
Blended Fair Value$3.41
Current Price$5.22
Upside-34.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.74%-1.57%0.100.100.000.050.000.010.080.000.000.10
YoY Growth---1.89%3,763.69%-94.73%0.00%-100.00%-93.48%2,822.14%26.64%-97.73%-14.73%
Dividend Yield--2.13%2.60%0.06%0.84%0.00%0.09%1.11%0.03%0.02%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.2926.4315.86
Cash Retained (M)78.5978.5978.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.29-26.43-15.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.3052.1662.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)956.86956.86956.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-3.57%-2.57%-1.57%
Fair Value$1.72$2.11$2.54
Upside / Downside-67.10%-59.57%-51.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.46206.02200.73195.57190.54185.64191.21
Payout Ratio62.84%68.27%73.70%79.13%84.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.87140.65147.94154.76161.13167.08176.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-3.57%-2.57%-1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)130.88132.24133.60
Year 2 PV (M)128.11130.78133.48
Year 3 PV (M)124.72128.64132.64
Year 4 PV (M)120.84125.94131.19
Year 5 PV (M)116.61122.78129.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,678.573,873.304,076.20
Equity Value (M)4,299.744,513.684,736.32
Shares Outstanding (M)956.86956.86956.86
Fair Value$4.49$4.72$4.95
Upside / Downside-13.92%-9.63%-5.18%

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