Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yongan Futures (600927.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.96 - $4.23$3.58
Multi-Stage$4.56 - $5.01$4.78
Blended Fair Value$4.18
Current Price$15.15
Upside-72.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.22%0.00%0.150.000.330.170.000.130.170.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%94.39%0.00%-100.00%-27.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.00%1.95%0.73%0.00%0.48%0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)630.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)521.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.1878.8647.32
Cash Retained (M)521.50521.50521.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.18-78.86-47.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)395.32442.64474.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,454.421,454.421,454.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.96$3.58$4.23
Upside / Downside-80.47%-76.37%-72.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)630.89624.59618.34612.16606.04599.97617.97
Payout Ratio17.34%31.87%46.40%60.94%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.40199.07286.93373.02457.36539.98571.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)179.97181.80183.64
Year 2 PV (M)234.51239.33244.18
Year 3 PV (M)275.62284.15292.85
Year 4 PV (M)305.52318.18331.23
Year 5 PV (M)326.10343.08360.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,314.415,591.155,879.29
Equity Value (M)6,636.136,957.687,291.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,454.421,454.421,454.42
Fair Value$4.56$4.78$5.01
Upside / Downside-69.88%-68.42%-66.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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