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Definitive Analysis

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Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. (600909.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.18 - $91.18$85.45
Multi-Stage$12.09 - $13.23$12.65
Blended Fair Value$49.05
Current Price$6.32
Upside676.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.60%29.06%0.220.190.190.180.150.100.120.070.150.05
YoY Growth--18.71%2.30%4.36%14.50%48.53%-11.26%64.76%-51.04%193.99%182.72%
Dividend Yield--4.04%4.05%3.84%3.59%2.68%1.49%1.78%1.12%1.40%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,225.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)852.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,373.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)445.08278.18166.91
Cash Retained (M)1,373.081,373.081,373.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-445.08-278.18-166.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)928.001,094.901,206.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,853.954,853.954,853.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.18$85.45$91.18
Upside / Downside345.84%1,252.04%1,342.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,225.422,370.082,524.132,688.202,862.933,049.023,140.49
Payout Ratio38.30%48.64%58.98%69.32%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)852.341,152.811,488.741,863.462,280.612,744.122,904.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,068.541,078.671,088.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,279.041,303.401,328.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,483.961,526.561,569.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,683.401,748.131,814.72
Year 5 PV (M)1,877.461,968.152,062.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,312.9253,791.3556,364.64
Equity Value (M)58,705.3161,416.2664,228.41
Shares Outstanding (M)4,853.954,853.954,853.95
Fair Value$12.09$12.65$13.23
Upside / Downside91.37%100.20%109.37%

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