DDM Analysis: 600862.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$127.06 - $149.70	$140.29
Multi-Stage	$90.89 - $99.75	$95.24
Blended Fair Value	$117.77
Current Price	$23.69
Upside	397.11%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.92%	24.54%	0.22	0.17	0.13	0.10	0.17	0.15	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	35.16%	26.59%	26.91%	-40.45%	13.23%	413.38%	-9.09%	33.02%	6.20%	-7.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.94%	0.85%	0.59%	0.46%	0.67%	1.27%	0.29%	0.37%	0.21%	0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,046.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	349.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	697.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	209.40	130.87	78.52
Cash Retained (M)	697.74	697.74	697.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-209.40	-130.87	-78.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	488.35	566.87	619.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,390.89	1,390.89	1,390.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.41	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.41	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.66	0.70
WACC / Discount Rate	1.27%	1.27%	1.27%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$127.06	$140.29	$149.70
Upside / Downside	436.36%	492.21%	531.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,046.99	1,115.05	1,187.53	1,264.72	1,346.92	1,434.47	1,477.51
Payout Ratio	33.36%	44.69%	56.01%	67.34%	78.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	349.25	498.27	665.19	851.70	1,059.64	1,291.02	1,366.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	1.27%	1.27%	1.27%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	487.38	492.00	496.62
Year 2 PV (M)	636.43	648.56	660.79
Year 3 PV (M)	797.08	819.96	843.27
Year 4 PV (M)	970.02	1,007.32	1,045.69
Year 5 PV (M)	1,156.01	1,211.84	1,269.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	122,376.01	128,286.82	134,423.84
Equity Value (M)	126,422.92	132,466.49	138,740.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,390.89	1,390.89	1,390.89
Fair Value	$90.89	$95.24	$99.75
Upside / Downside	283.68%	302.02%	321.06%

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AVIC Aviation High-Technology Co., Ltd. (600862.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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