Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai Shentong Metro Co.,Ltd. (600834.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.55 - $13.64$12.77
Multi-Stage$8.66 - $9.61$9.13
Blended Fair Value$10.95
Current Price$8.64
Upside26.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.23%-3.36%0.090.110.080.130.140.120.100.100.090.12
YoY Growth---11.56%30.37%-36.55%-10.03%22.39%21.54%0.37%9.84%-24.96%-12.24%
Dividend Yield--1.17%1.46%0.97%1.51%1.57%1.87%1.16%1.06%0.59%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.134.462.67
Cash Retained (M)15.5615.5615.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.13-4.46-2.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.4311.1112.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)467.40467.40467.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate-7.94%-7.94%-7.94%
Growth Rate-5.36%-4.36%-3.36%
Fair Value$11.55$12.77$13.64
Upside / Downside33.71%47.79%57.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.6634.1132.6231.2029.8428.5429.40
Payout Ratio56.35%63.08%69.81%76.54%83.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0921.5122.7723.8824.8525.6927.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.94%-7.94%-7.94%
Growth Rate-5.36%-4.36%-3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)23.1223.3723.61
Year 2 PV (M)26.3126.8727.43
Year 3 PV (M)29.6530.6031.57
Year 4 PV (M)33.1634.5936.06
Year 5 PV (M)36.8538.8440.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,900.944,111.434,330.90
Equity Value (M)4,050.044,265.694,490.49
Shares Outstanding (M)467.40467.40467.40
Fair Value$8.66$9.13$9.61
Upside / Downside0.29%5.63%11.20%

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