Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu SOPO Chemical Co. Ltd. (600746.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.28 - $5.09$3.29
Multi-Stage$1.61 - $1.76$1.68
Blended Fair Value$2.49
Current Price$7.18
Upside-65.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.25%-4.56%0.010.211.020.180.020.000.030.010.000.00
YoY Growth---97.14%-79.79%466.79%962.42%509.08%-91.33%242.86%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.07%3.13%12.40%1.34%0.16%0.05%0.40%0.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.3116.449.87
Cash Retained (M)123.77123.77123.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.31-16.44-9.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.47107.33113.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,151.871,151.871,151.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.28$3.29$5.09
Upside / Downside-68.28%-54.15%-29.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.53140.08149.19158.89169.21180.21185.62
Payout Ratio5.90%22.72%39.54%56.36%73.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.7631.8358.9989.55123.83162.19171.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28.7329.0029.28
Year 2 PV (M)48.0748.9949.91
Year 3 PV (M)65.8867.7769.70
Year 4 PV (M)82.2485.4188.66
Year 5 PV (M)97.25101.94106.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,529.121,602.971,679.66
Equity Value (M)1,851.291,936.082,024.02
Shares Outstanding (M)1,151.871,151.871,151.87
Fair Value$1.61$1.68$1.76
Upside / Downside-77.62%-76.59%-75.53%

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