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Changchun FAWAY Automobile Components Co.,Ltd (600742.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.71 - $78.98$33.64
Multi-Stage$18.17 - $19.90$19.02
Blended Fair Value$26.33
Current Price$10.22
Upside157.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%8.57%0.260.260.280.280.150.440.300.300.170.15
YoY Growth--2.50%-8.26%1.07%88.59%-66.52%44.61%-0.73%82.91%9.96%31.37%
Dividend Yield--2.87%2.79%3.19%2.83%1.56%5.56%2.69%3.04%1.47%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)500.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)268.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.0562.5337.52
Cash Retained (M)232.08232.08232.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.05-62.53-37.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.03169.55194.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)743.10743.10743.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Fair Value$19.71$33.64$78.98
Upside / Downside92.88%229.16%672.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)500.26523.80548.45574.26601.29629.59648.48
Payout Ratio53.61%60.89%68.16%75.44%82.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)268.18318.92373.85433.24497.40566.63599.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Year 1 PV (M)296.49299.35302.20
Year 2 PV (M)323.10329.36335.68
Year 3 PV (M)348.09358.26368.62
Year 4 PV (M)371.52386.06401.02
Year 5 PV (M)393.46412.80432.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,767.3112,345.7012,946.61
Equity Value (M)13,499.9814,131.5314,787.04
Shares Outstanding (M)743.10743.10743.10
Fair Value$18.17$19.02$19.90
Upside / Downside77.76%86.08%94.71%

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