DDM Analysis: 600620.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.96 - $1.53	$1.22
Multi-Stage	$1.08 - $1.19	$1.13
Blended Fair Value	$1.18
Current Price	$6.20
Upside	-81.01%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.17%	-9.80%	0.04	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-45.18%	-3.07%	37.71%	67.94%	-0.21%	0.19%	0.03%	12.97%	-43.10%	-54.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	1.02%	0.54%	0.56%	0.47%	0.51%	0.36%	0.35%	0.19%	0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	62.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)	54.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.43	7.77	4.66
Cash Retained (M)	54.29	54.29	54.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.43	-7.77	-4.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)	41.87	46.53	49.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	682.52	682.52	682.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	2.17%	3.17%	4.17%
Fair Value	$0.96	$1.22	$1.53
Upside / Downside	-84.47%	-80.29%	-75.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	62.13	64.10	66.13	68.22	70.38	72.61	74.79
Payout Ratio	12.62%	28.09%	43.57%	59.05%	74.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.84	18.01	28.81	40.28	52.45	65.35	69.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	2.17%	3.17%	4.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.23	16.39	16.54
Year 2 PV (M)	23.40	23.86	24.32
Year 3 PV (M)	29.48	30.35	31.24
Year 4 PV (M)	34.59	35.96	37.38
Year 5 PV (M)	38.84	40.78	42.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	596.54	626.31	657.26
Equity Value (M)	739.07	773.65	809.54
Shares Outstanding (M)	682.52	682.52	682.52
Fair Value	$1.08	$1.13	$1.19
Upside / Downside	-82.53%	-81.72%	-80.87%

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Shanghai Tianchen Co.,Ltd (600620.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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