Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (600618.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.70 - $20.12$14.53
Multi-Stage$9.13 - $9.99$9.55
Blended Fair Value$12.04
Current Price$10.36
Upside16.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.88%46.64%0.230.360.400.000.100.120.030.050.060.12
YoY Growth---36.15%-10.00%9,800.21%-95.96%-16.67%242.86%-26.68%-26.19%-46.86%2,333.84%
Dividend Yield--2.32%4.26%4.00%0.03%1.28%1.67%0.37%0.45%0.53%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)793.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)772.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.7199.2059.52
Cash Retained (M)772.70772.70772.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.71-99.20-59.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)613.99673.51713.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.531,156.531,156.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$10.70$14.53$20.12
Upside / Downside3.28%40.23%94.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)793.57836.30881.34928.80978.821,031.531,062.48
Payout Ratio2.63%20.10%37.58%55.05%72.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.86168.12331.18511.32709.90928.38982.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)151.75153.20154.65
Year 2 PV (M)269.81275.00280.25
Year 3 PV (M)375.98386.89398.01
Year 4 PV (M)471.16489.47508.32
Year 5 PV (M)556.14583.30611.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,734.429,160.899,603.86
Equity Value (M)10,559.2611,048.7611,556.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.531,156.531,156.53
Fair Value$9.13$9.55$9.99
Upside / Downside-11.87%-7.79%-3.55%

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