Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Jingneng Power Co., Ltd. (600578.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.52 - $87.54$29.85
Multi-Stage$14.53 - $15.93$15.21
Blended Fair Value$22.53
Current Price$4.13
Upside445.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.16%0.49%0.320.370.250.360.350.330.260.310.310.29
YoY Growth---11.65%49.20%-30.64%1.84%6.55%24.71%-15.71%0.70%4.89%-4.67%
Dividend Yield--9.07%10.97%7.87%12.69%7.98%11.95%7.68%8.98%6.95%6.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,477.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,154.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,322.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)695.54434.71260.83
Cash Retained (M)2,322.942,322.942,322.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-695.54-434.71-260.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,627.391,888.222,062.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,792.756,792.756,792.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Fair Value$16.52$29.85$87.54
Upside / Downside300.07%622.81%2,019.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,477.713,643.373,816.923,998.734,189.214,388.764,520.42
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,154.771,623.632,134.532,690.433,294.443,949.884,181.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Year 1 PV (M)1,512.321,526.891,541.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,851.891,887.761,923.97
Year 3 PV (M)2,174.152,237.622,302.30
Year 4 PV (M)2,479.732,576.722,676.52
Year 5 PV (M)2,769.262,905.303,046.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)87,888.0092,205.4396,690.90
Equity Value (M)98,675.35103,339.71108,181.79
Shares Outstanding (M)6,792.756,792.756,792.75
Fair Value$14.53$15.21$15.93
Upside / Downside251.73%268.36%285.62%

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