Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Jiaoda Onlly Co.,Ltd (600530.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.19 - $0.26$0.22
Multi-Stage$0.31 - $0.34$0.33
Blended Fair Value$0.28
Current Price$8.14
Upside-96.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-32.82%-27.60%0.000.010.010.020.020.020.070.090.080.08
YoY Growth---65.05%-40.24%-28.58%-25.42%22.98%-73.28%-24.29%12.12%-0.18%27.86%
Dividend Yield--0.05%0.30%0.33%0.34%0.74%0.52%1.04%1.61%1.16%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.103.191.91
Cash Retained (M)15.8615.8615.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.10-3.19-1.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.7512.6713.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)767.09767.09767.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-3.76%-2.76%-1.76%
Fair Value$0.19$0.22$0.26
Upside / Downside-97.69%-97.25%-96.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.5224.8124.1323.4622.8122.1822.85
Payout Ratio37.87%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6611.9814.1716.2218.1519.9721.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-3.76%-2.76%-1.76%
Year 1 PV (M)10.7910.9111.02
Year 2 PV (M)11.4911.7311.98
Year 3 PV (M)11.8512.2312.61
Year 4 PV (M)11.9512.4512.97
Year 5 PV (M)11.8312.4613.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)181.96191.61201.66
Equity Value (M)239.88251.39263.35
Shares Outstanding (M)767.09767.09767.09
Fair Value$0.31$0.33$0.34
Upside / Downside-96.16%-95.97%-95.78%

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