Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co., Ltd. (600482.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.42 - $160.23$150.16
Multi-Stage$23.54 - $25.75$24.62
Blended Fair Value$87.39
Current Price$22.22
Upside293.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.17%17.24%0.220.170.150.070.090.080.160.410.150.22
YoY Growth--32.42%8.45%116.05%-16.92%5.58%-48.59%-61.25%174.82%-31.20%378.82%
Dividend Yield--1.02%0.81%0.92%0.44%0.51%0.49%0.55%1.63%0.46%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,855.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)922.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)932.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)371.07231.92139.15
Cash Retained (M)932.95932.95932.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-371.07-231.92-139.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)561.88701.03793.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,302.752,302.752,302.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.300.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.42$150.16$160.23
Upside / Downside194.44%575.80%621.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,855.341,975.932,104.372,241.152,386.832,541.972,618.23
Payout Ratio49.72%57.77%65.83%73.89%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)922.391,141.551,385.291,655.901,955.842,287.772,421.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,061.421,071.481,081.54
Year 2 PV (M)1,197.641,220.451,243.48
Year 3 PV (M)1,331.111,369.321,408.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,461.861,518.071,575.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,589.931,666.721,746.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,553.8449,850.7052,235.48
Equity Value (M)54,195.7856,696.7559,291.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2,302.752,302.752,302.75
Fair Value$23.54$24.62$25.75
Upside / Downside5.92%10.81%15.88%

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