DDM Analysis: 600449.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.98 - $5.64	$4.80
Multi-Stage	$11.46 - $12.66	$12.05
Blended Fair Value	$8.42
Current Price	$13.17
Upside	-36.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.76%	-3.61%	0.32	0.45	0.62	0.70	0.56	0.38	0.32	0.23	0.24	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-29.35%	-27.65%	-11.88%	25.20%	46.41%	18.84%	38.46%	-3.73%	123.92%	-76.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.17%	2.71%	3.80%	4.99%	3.71%	3.04%	3.29%	2.02%	1.88%	1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	292.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	115.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	176.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	58.40	36.50	21.90
Cash Retained (M)	176.28	176.28	176.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-58.40	-36.50	-21.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	117.87	139.77	154.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	464.90	464.90	464.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.30	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.30	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.55	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-5.61%	-4.61%	-3.61%
Fair Value	$3.98	$4.80	$5.64
Upside / Downside	-69.80%	-63.56%	-57.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	292.02	278.56	265.73	253.48	241.80	230.66	237.58
Payout Ratio	39.64%	49.71%	59.78%	69.85%	79.93%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	115.74	138.47	158.85	177.07	193.27	207.59	219.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-5.61%	-4.61%	-3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	128.88	130.24	131.61
Year 2 PV (M)	137.61	140.54	143.50
Year 3 PV (M)	142.76	147.35	152.03
Year 4 PV (M)	145.03	151.27	157.71
Year 5 PV (M)	144.99	152.83	161.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,628.29	4,878.70	5,139.84
Equity Value (M)	5,327.55	5,600.93	5,885.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	464.90	464.90	464.90
Fair Value	$11.46	$12.05	$12.66
Upside / Downside	-12.99%	-8.52%	-3.87%

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Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd (600449.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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