Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers Co.,Ltd. (600428.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.85 - $143.61$64.59
Multi-Stage$15.68 - $17.16$16.41
Blended Fair Value$40.50
Current Price$6.67
Upside507.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.00%17.81%0.330.270.130.090.120.140.150.110.090.09
YoY Growth--22.08%100.96%42.00%-19.03%-18.88%-1.26%36.29%20.65%-0.93%39.93%
Dividend Yield--4.91%4.58%2.12%2.13%2.97%4.55%3.16%2.26%1.21%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,657.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)113.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,543.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)331.47207.17124.30
Cash Retained (M)1,543.361,543.361,543.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-331.47-207.17-124.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.891,336.191,419.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,295.142,295.142,295.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.85$64.59$143.61
Upside / Downside347.50%868.34%2,053.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,657.341,765.061,879.792,001.982,132.112,270.692,338.82
Payout Ratio6.88%23.50%40.13%56.75%73.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)113.98414.82754.291,136.141,564.442,043.632,163.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)382.11385.73389.35
Year 2 PV (M)640.01652.20664.51
Year 3 PV (M)887.99913.48939.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,126.321,169.631,214.19
Year 5 PV (M)1,355.281,420.741,488.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,588.7033,114.4534,698.59
Equity Value (M)35,980.4137,656.2339,394.79
Shares Outstanding (M)2,295.142,295.142,295.14
Fair Value$15.68$16.41$17.16
Upside / Downside135.03%145.98%157.34%

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