Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Petroleum Engineering Corporation (600339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.28 - $6.43$3.55
Multi-Stage$2.11 - $2.32$2.21
Blended Fair Value$2.88
Current Price$3.39
Upside-14.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.20%9.12%0.060.050.030.050.050.060.040.010.030.05
YoY Growth--15.49%63.52%-45.20%7.12%-19.28%48.61%505.46%-76.97%-38.31%109.31%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.49%0.79%1.81%1.40%2.37%0.88%0.17%0.42%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)526.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.3165.8239.49
Cash Retained (M)377.93377.93377.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.31-65.82-39.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)272.62312.11338.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,582.295,582.295,582.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Fair Value$2.28$3.55$6.43
Upside / Downside-32.77%4.74%89.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)526.56551.42577.45604.72633.27663.16683.06
Payout Ratio28.23%40.58%52.94%65.29%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.63223.78305.68394.82491.70596.85631.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)206.84208.83210.83
Year 2 PV (M)261.16266.22271.33
Year 3 PV (M)311.79320.90330.18
Year 4 PV (M)358.91372.95387.40
Year 5 PV (M)402.68422.47443.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,258.9210,763.0911,286.89
Equity Value (M)11,800.2912,354.4612,929.65
Shares Outstanding (M)5,582.295,582.295,582.29
Fair Value$2.11$2.21$2.32
Upside / Downside-37.64%-34.72%-31.68%

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