Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Orient International Enterprise, Ltd. (600278.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.82 - $11.20$7.06
Multi-Stage$3.41 - $3.72$3.56
Blended Fair Value$5.31
Current Price$7.42
Upside-28.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.55%12.77%0.220.160.170.150.200.170.100.070.080.07
YoY Growth--38.27%-8.21%19.04%-26.30%17.65%72.39%41.32%-9.18%2.14%12.36%
Dividend Yield--3.41%2.57%2.39%1.81%2.37%1.83%0.58%0.69%0.53%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.6826.0515.63
Cash Retained (M)172.44172.44172.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.68-26.05-15.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.76146.39156.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)899.70899.70899.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.82$7.06$11.20
Upside / Downside-35.04%-4.80%51.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.38221.93236.35251.71268.08285.50294.06
Payout Ratio17.25%31.80%46.35%60.90%75.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.9470.57109.55153.29202.26256.95272.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.8164.4165.02
Year 2 PV (M)89.5691.2792.99
Year 3 PV (M)113.32116.58119.89
Year 4 PV (M)135.20140.40145.75
Year 5 PV (M)155.31162.81170.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,507.952,629.092,754.86
Equity Value (M)3,065.163,204.563,349.11
Shares Outstanding (M)899.70899.70899.70
Fair Value$3.41$3.56$3.72
Upside / Downside-54.09%-52.00%-49.83%

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