Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guodian Nanjing Automation Co., Ltd. (600268.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.42 - $88.88$83.30
Multi-Stage$13.51 - $14.80$14.14
Blended Fair Value$48.72
Current Price$10.23
Upside376.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.16%4.51%0.090.070.120.070.090.030.140.160.220.27
YoY Growth--20.40%-36.66%60.84%-18.52%219.77%-80.20%-11.54%-26.53%-18.87%365.93%
Dividend Yield--1.23%1.21%2.06%1.19%1.80%0.68%2.58%3.98%3.88%5.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.2755.8033.48
Cash Retained (M)295.60295.60295.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.27-55.80-33.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)206.33239.81262.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)998.77998.77998.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.42$83.30$88.88
Upside / Downside314.68%714.23%768.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.37475.39506.29539.20574.25611.57629.92
Payout Ratio33.78%45.02%56.27%67.51%78.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.77214.03284.87364.02452.25550.41582.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)199.28201.17203.06
Year 2 PV (M)246.98251.68256.43
Year 3 PV (M)293.86302.29310.89
Year 4 PV (M)339.94353.01366.46
Year 5 PV (M)385.23403.83423.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,032.6212,613.8013,217.23
Equity Value (M)13,497.9114,125.8014,777.22
Shares Outstanding (M)998.77998.77998.77
Fair Value$13.51$14.14$14.80
Upside / Downside32.11%38.25%44.63%

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