Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd. (600230.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.84 - $3.29$2.45
Multi-Stage$1.95 - $2.14$2.04
Blended Fair Value$2.24
Current Price$12.30
Upside-81.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.56%-8.97%0.120.270.180.160.110.110.420.160.170.25
YoY Growth---53.18%50.94%11.05%44.66%-0.03%-73.49%161.66%-8.91%-31.25%-20.79%
Dividend Yield--1.24%2.40%1.02%1.00%1.02%1.34%2.02%0.53%1.04%2.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.836.774.06
Cash Retained (M)42.7442.7442.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.83-6.77-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9235.9838.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)414.08414.08414.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Fair Value$1.84$2.45$3.29
Upside / Downside-85.07%-80.12%-73.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.1356.2958.5360.8763.3065.8267.80
Payout Ratio21.03%34.82%48.62%62.41%76.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3819.6028.4637.9948.2459.2462.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)17.8318.0118.18
Year 2 PV (M)23.5624.0224.48
Year 3 PV (M)28.6129.4530.31
Year 4 PV (M)33.0534.3635.70
Year 5 PV (M)36.9338.7640.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)667.91700.97735.33
Equity Value (M)807.90845.56884.66
Shares Outstanding (M)414.08414.08414.08
Fair Value$1.95$2.04$2.14
Upside / Downside-84.14%-83.40%-82.63%

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