Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Medicine Co., Ltd. (600216.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.16 - $32.19$24.09
Multi-Stage$16.62 - $18.20$17.40
Blended Fair Value$20.75
Current Price$14.17
Upside46.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.27%1.95%0.180.200.370.271.060.180.100.170.070.08
YoY Growth---11.26%-45.34%35.00%-74.15%498.96%71.32%-38.53%141.14%-16.40%-43.65%
Dividend Yield--1.33%2.16%2.98%1.75%7.53%0.94%0.93%1.10%0.59%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,244.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,227.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.80155.5093.30
Cash Retained (M)1,227.781,227.781,227.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.80-155.50-93.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)978.981,072.281,134.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)953.56953.56953.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.121.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.121.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Fair Value$18.16$24.09$32.19
Upside / Downside28.19%70.04%127.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,244.011,304.771,368.511,435.361,505.471,579.011,626.38
Payout Ratio1.30%19.04%36.78%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.23248.48503.37782.581,087.861,421.111,504.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)224.03226.19228.34
Year 2 PV (M)409.20417.12425.11
Year 3 PV (M)573.59590.32607.36
Year 4 PV (M)718.91746.99775.89
Year 5 PV (M)846.74888.28931.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,078.5013,720.2114,386.86
Equity Value (M)15,850.9716,589.1117,355.01
Shares Outstanding (M)953.56953.56953.56
Fair Value$16.62$17.40$18.20
Upside / Downside17.31%22.77%28.44%

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