Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. (600166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.44 - $0.58$0.51
Multi-Stage$0.49 - $0.54$0.52
Blended Fair Value$0.51
Current Price$2.74
Upside-81.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.61%-11.93%0.020.000.000.030.060.090.120.070.060.02
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-48.75%-35.55%-19.09%63.59%27.63%210.18%-74.85%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.00%0.00%1.20%1.52%4.97%4.87%2.85%1.72%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)761.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)636.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)152.2095.1357.08
Cash Retained (M)636.89636.89636.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-152.20-95.13-57.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)484.68541.76579.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,917.407,917.407,917.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate15.58%15.58%15.58%
Growth Rate-1.69%-0.69%0.31%
Fair Value$0.44$0.51$0.58
Upside / Downside-84.02%-81.26%-78.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)761.01755.75750.54745.36740.21735.10757.15
Payout Ratio16.31%31.05%45.79%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.12234.65343.64451.12557.10661.59700.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.58%15.58%15.58%
Growth Rate-1.69%-0.69%0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)200.97203.02205.06
Year 2 PV (M)252.09257.25262.45
Year 3 PV (M)283.45292.18301.10
Year 4 PV (M)299.80312.19324.95
Year 5 PV (M)304.94320.77337.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,566.322,699.522,838.20
Equity Value (M)3,907.574,084.934,269.02
Shares Outstanding (M)7,917.407,917.407,917.40
Fair Value$0.49$0.52$0.54
Upside / Downside-81.99%-81.17%-80.32%

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