Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

State Grid Information & Communication Co., Ltd. (600131.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.29 - $24.70$16.20
Multi-Stage$8.02 - $8.76$8.38
Blended Fair Value$12.29
Current Price$17.66
Upside-30.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.04%10.57%0.200.190.190.180.150.120.120.020.020.02
YoY Growth--2.80%3.61%5.70%18.82%26.22%-2.73%509.76%0.00%0.00%-72.72%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.01%0.94%1.18%0.97%0.66%0.62%0.31%0.18%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)735.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)694.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.1391.9655.18
Cash Retained (M)694.40694.40694.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.13-91.96-55.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)547.26602.44639.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,269.981,269.981,269.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.29$16.20$24.70
Upside / Downside-36.09%-8.26%39.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)735.67783.49834.41888.65946.411,007.931,038.17
Payout Ratio5.61%22.49%39.37%56.24%73.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.27176.19328.48499.81692.04907.14960.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)158.91160.42161.93
Year 2 PV (M)267.21272.30277.44
Year 3 PV (M)366.71377.24387.97
Year 4 PV (M)457.96475.57493.68
Year 5 PV (M)541.43567.58594.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,389.308,794.519,215.22
Equity Value (M)10,181.5210,647.6111,130.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,269.981,269.981,269.98
Fair Value$8.02$8.38$8.76
Upside / Downside-54.60%-52.52%-50.37%

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