Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tianjin Hi-Tech Development Co.,Ltd. (600082.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.46 - $0.63$0.55
Multi-Stage$1.51 - $1.66$1.58
Blended Fair Value$1.06
Current Price$4.07
Upside-73.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.50%0.40%0.100.110.100.110.120.140.150.110.110.10
YoY Growth---11.73%8.92%-10.77%-4.79%-12.52%-9.37%35.53%-2.51%13.59%7.08%
Dividend Yield--3.44%3.94%3.13%1.80%4.10%4.05%2.74%1.96%1.51%1.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.097.554.53
Cash Retained (M)16.4616.4616.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.09-7.55-4.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.378.9011.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)646.71646.71646.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-8.50%-7.50%-6.50%
Fair Value$0.46$0.55$0.63
Upside / Downside-88.68%-86.58%-84.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.4355.9051.7147.8344.2440.9242.15
Payout Ratio72.77%76.21%79.66%83.11%86.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.9842.6041.1939.7538.2936.8338.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-8.50%-7.50%-6.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6340.0640.50
Year 2 PV (M)35.6436.4237.21
Year 3 PV (M)31.9933.0534.13
Year 4 PV (M)28.6729.9431.25
Year 5 PV (M)25.6527.0828.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)811.73857.07904.41
Equity Value (M)973.301,023.621,076.08
Shares Outstanding (M)646.71646.71646.71
Fair Value$1.51$1.58$1.66
Upside / Downside-63.02%-61.11%-59.12%

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